21 July 2023

By-election blues: Previous nightmare results at the polls for the Tories

21 July 2023

As the Tories are left reeling following another bad night at the polls, we look at previous by-election nightmares for the Conservatives.

Probably the most famous defeat in the post-war era was the Orpington by-election in 1962. The Liberals, a perennial third party long consigned to the political wilderness, sprang a major surprise by taking the seat off the Conservatives.

Eric Lubbock won the seat with a majority of 7,855, marking a swing of nearly 22% away from the Conservatives.

It was the first seat the Government had lost since the general election in October 1959 and a seat they had held since 1945, making the defeat even more substantial. The stunning victory for the Liberals was dubbed the "Orpington Revolution" and triggered a revival that reshaped British politics as we know it.

Following closely on the heels of ignominious defeats is the Eastbourne by-election in 1990. The poll was triggered by the assassination of Ian Gow, a Conservative MP, by the Irish Republican Army. Despite the prevailing circumstances, the party was not spared by voters. Instead, they lost the seat to the Liberals, which was seen as a humiliating defeat for the party, smack in the middle of Margaret Thatcher's reign.

More recently, in 2021 the Tories suffered a real black eye in the Chesham and Amersham by-election, a seat it had held since its establishment in 1974, following the death of the sitting member, Dame Cheryl Gillan. She had served as MP for the constituency since 1992.

In a shock result, the Lib Dem Sarah Green secured 21,517 votes, leaving the Conservative Peter Fleet trailing with 13,489, and giving the Lib Dems a majority of 8,028.

The remarkable victory was prompted by local opposition to the planned HS2 high speed railway line and controversial new planning laws. The defeat showed an increased level of discontent with the party among some of its traditional base.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the Tories "blue wall" was "beginning to crumble".

Still in 2021 and another Tory disaster in the North Shropshire constituency, a traditional Conservative stronghold.

Lib Dem candidate Helen Morgan overturned a huge Tory majority to triumph in the contest, which was sparked by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid a lobbying scandal.

Mrs Morgan polled 17,957 votes, ahead of Tory candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst on 12,032, giving her a majority of 5,925.

Labour's Ben Wood was a distant third with 3,686 votes.

Speaking hours after the result, then Tory Party Chairman Oliver Dowden said voters in North Shropshire had sent a message and the government has "heard that loud and clear".

"Well voters in North Shropshire were fed up and they gave us a kicking and I think they wanted to send us a message - and I want to say, as chairman of the Conservative Party, we have heard that loud and clear," he said.

Analysing these defeats, it’s evident that the Conservative Party, like virtually every political entity, suffers when it falls out of tune with the electorate or takes them for granted. Issues such as local politics, planning laws, unpopularity of the incumbent and national policy decisions have all been factors that have led to these by-election losses.

Additionally, these defeats often serve as a wake-up call, forcing the party to re-evaluate its strategies and policies. By-elections, as mid-term bellwethers, can reflect national trends but they can also spin around intensely local issues. Regardless of the cause, these losses expose vulnerabilities that need addressing if the Conservative Party is maintain power in the long-term.

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