21 May 2020

Trump will lose Presidential election in a landslide, economic model predicts

Donald Trump is looking at a landslide defeat in November’s presidential election, according to a study

A model by Oxford Economics suggests that Trump will lose due to the economic impact of the pandemic.

And, according to a report by CNN, based on the model, the President will capture just 35 per cent of the popular vote.

The model uses inflation, unemployment and disposable income to predict outcomes of elections - a formula that has successfully forecast the outcome of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 presidential elections.

The new prediction is completely different to what it was suggesting before the coronavirus hit the US.

CNN reports that prior to the pandemic, Oxford was predicting Trump would win 55 per cent of the popular vote.

“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump," they said, adding it would be an ’insurmountable obstacle come November’.

So far around 36 million Americans have filed for unemployment since the virus hit industries across the country.

The Democrat nominee to go up against the President is due to be announced in August but Joe Biden has already begun his campaign.

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