12 November 2021

Weaker fossil fuel language, but more on finance in latest draft of Cop26 deal

12 November 2021

A new draft of the deal that could be agreed at the Cop26 climate talks has weakened language on fossil fuels – but has kept them in the text.

There is also more on finance for poorer countries to adapt with climate change and a request for all nations to strengthen their plans for cutting emissions up to 2030 by the end of next year.

The first draft of the “cover decision” for the overarching agreement at the summit called for countries “to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels”.

In a new draft produced on Friday morning, that has changed to calling on countries to accelerate the shift to clean energy systems, “including by rapidly scaling up clean power generation and accelerating the phaseout of unabated coal power and of inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels”.

The inclusion of a direct reference to coal and fossil fuel subsidies was thought to be a first for a UN decision document of this type but had been expected to get fierce pushback from some countries and may not make it into the final text.

(PA Graphics) (PA Graphics)

Talks went on through the night and look set to overrun from their finish time of Friday evening as negotiators come under pressure to resolve issues around finance for poor countries, fossil fuels, the efforts of countries to cut emissions in the 2020s and rules on carbon markets and transparency.

In the new version of the cover decision text, countries are requested to “revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets” in their national action plans by the end of 2022 to align with the Paris temperature goals.

In the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries committed to limit temperature rises to “well below” 2C and try to limit them to 1.5C – beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt.

Scientists have warned that keeping temperature rises to 1.5C – beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt – requires global emissions to be cut by 45% by 2030, and to zero overall by mid-century.

But current action plans, known as nationally determined contributions, for emissions cuts up to 2030 leave the world well off track to meet the goal, and could see warming of 2.4C over the long term.

Therefore, countries are under pressure in Glasgow to rapidly increase their ambition for emission cuts in the 2020s to stop the 1.5C goal slipping out of reach.

It's clear that the aim of this summit to keep 1.5 alive is in mortal peril

The new version of the text “requests” countries to revisit and strengthen their plans for 2030 within the next year, compared with the previous version which “urges” them to do so, in what is a strengthening of the language by making it more of a direction.

Cop26 President Alok Sharma has been clear there are no efforts to renegotiate the Paris Agreement – which means that both the “well below” 2C and 1.5C targets are still both included in the Paris goal – though he has also said a key aim of Glasgow is about keeping the 1.5C goal within reach.

In the wake of the new draft, shadow business secretary Ed Miliband warned: “It’s clear that the aim of this summit to keep 1.5 alive is in mortal peril.

“There has been some welcome progress on strengthening the pathway out of Glasgow in the new draft.

“But there is still too much ambiguity about the responsibility of all countries to align their targets with 1.5C and important language on keeping fossil fuels in the ground has been watered down.

He said: “It is absolutely vital that there is no backsliding, no fudges and no bending over backwards for the big emitters over the next crucial hours.”

Greenpeace International executive director Jennifer Morgan said of the text: “It could be better, it should be better, and we have one day left to make it a lot, lot better.”

Providing finance for developing countries to develop cleanly, adapt to the impacts of climate change and address the loss and damage to people, livelihoods, land and infrastructure already being hit by increasing weather extremes and rising seas is also key to securing a deal in Glasgow.

Helen Mountford, WRI vice-president for climate and economics, said: “Overall, on balance this is definitely a stronger and more balanced text than we had a few days ago.”

She said sections on adaptation finance and loss and damage appear stronger but the reference to “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies “does weaken that a little”.

She said a gap remains on the pledge from developed nations to mobilise one billion US dollars a year from 2020, with no reference to making up the current shortfall.

There is now a date – missing from the first draft – for when developed countries should double the provision of finance to help developing countries adapt to climate change – by 2025.

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