Clubs’ desire to avoid tough sanctions for financial rule breaches could be a big factor in the spectacular drop in Premier League transfer spending this month, a football finance expert has said.

Financial services firm Deloitte has told the PA news agency that by January 23 last year £435million had been spent by the 20 top-flight clubs – 10 times more than by the same date this year.

Spending reached a record £815m by the end of the January 2023 window, but so far this month Tottenham’s purchase of Romania defender Radu Dragusin from Genoa for a reported £26.7m is one of a small number of permanent deals to have been completed, with loan moves dominating.

The relative quiet comes following a 10-point deduction imposed on Everton in November by an independent commission for breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR). The commission found the club had acted “irresponsibly” and concluded they “overspent”, largely on the purchase of new players.

Everton expect to learn the outcome of their appeal against that sanction by the end of next month, but were referred to an independent commission again earlier this month, along with Nottingham Forest this time, for breaching PSR in the period ending last season. Those cases should be resolved before the end of this season under a new fast-track process agreed by the clubs.

Tim Bridge, lead partner in Deloitte’s Sports Business Group, told PA: “It would be remiss not to talk about the impact (on transfer spending) of some of the regulatory moves that the Premier League has made and the independent bodies that work with the Premier League have made to really focus on how the Premier League is governed.

“You look at what’s happened with Everton, you look at what’s happened with Nottingham Forest, obviously there are ongoing investigations with other clubs as well.

“That will, I expect, have driven an underlying caution and also a real need to ensure that any value in the transfer market is as good as it possibly can be.”

Bridge did not rule out a “late flurry” of activity in the final week of the window but added: “I do think that some of those deals that maybe we’re used to seeing earlier in the window are either not being considered because of the regulatory challenge and the need to be compliant, which is a good thing, but also that element of the selling club really wanting to make sure that it drives the absolute value (of their players).”